ECB survey: perceived inflation rose slightly to 3.6 percent
Consumers in the euro area perceived slightly higher inflation in September 2026 and expect 3.1 percent over the next twelve months.
By Finmon
Prices & inflation · Euro area · 2026-10-23 · 3 min · European Central Bank (ECB)
3.1 % expected inflation in 12 months
In 30 seconds
- Perceived inflation over the past 12 months rose to 3.6 percent.
- Expected inflation for the next 12 months rose to 3.1 percent.
- Expected nominal income growth rose to 1.1 percent.
- Expected economic growth fell to minus 1.5 percent.
What does this mean for you?
I save (Little direct effect)
If you save, the real return on your deposits changes only marginally as long as actual inflation stays similar.
I have loans (Little direct effect)
If you have loans, the expected interest burden on mortgages stays unchanged at 4.9 percent.
I am employed (Mixed)
If you are employed, expected nominal income growth rose slightly but remains below expected inflation.
How it could hurt you
Real purchasing power
If actual inflation turns out higher than expected, the real purchasing power of your income falls.
Where there may be an upside
The survey provides only expectation values without direct action guidance for individual households.
What happened?
- The ECB published the Consumer Expectations Survey results for September 2026 on 23 October 2026.
- Median perceived inflation over the past 12 months rose to 3.6 percent from 3.5 percent in August.
- Median expected inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1 percent from 3.0 percent.
- Expectations three and five years ahead stayed unchanged at 2.9 percent and 2.5 percent.
- Expected nominal income growth rose to 1.1 percent and expected nominal spending growth to 3.7 percent.
Why does it matter?
The survey shows how euro-area consumers assess price increases and income developments. These expectations affect real purchasing power and saving behaviour.
What you could check now
- Compare your own spending in recent months with the survey figures.
- Check whether your wage development keeps pace with expected inflation.
No action needed if: You have no variable contracts and do not plan major expenses in the next twelve months.
What is still uncertain
- Whether actual inflation will follow the expectations remains open.
- The next survey wave is due on 27 November 2026.
Sources & checks
- ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results: September 2026
European Central Bank (ECB) · 2026-10-23
This explainer was created with AI assistance from the original source and checked automatically: figures against the source text, identical statements in German and English, official sources only, no buy or sell recommendations.
Published 2026-10-24 · Revision 1 · Valid until 2026-11-27
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